Global Economics & Market Strategy

Chief Economist’s Insights: Looking Past Black Swans – Implications on Growth, Inflation & Rates

17 April 2024

Barnabas Gan

Acting Group Chief Economist & Head, Market Research

Global risk appetite will likely remain in risk-on mode, assuming no further escalation of Middle East tensions. We keep our global growth assumptions for a rosier 2024 backdrop.
Geopolitical risks remain to be a black-swan event. In the short term, we advocate some asset allocation into quality assets and safe havens. Any unexpected escalations may threaten our global growth assumptions given downside trade, investment, and tourism risks.
We downgrade our view for the US Fed Funds Rate to see only one cut in 2H24, with the balance of risks observably magnified towards no cuts in 2024. The tensions have reinforced our view for high-for-longer Fed Funds Rate (FFR) in 2024 on the back of higher inflationary pressures.

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