Global Economics & Market Strategy

2024 Outlook: RHB Global Risk Sentiment Index - We Remain Optimistic on Global Growth

04 April 2024
 

Barnabas Gan Acting Group Chief Economist & Head, Market Research

• The five themes global investors will focus on in 2Q24 are (1) the continued economic recovery momentum in the US, China and key ASEAN economies; (2) the persistence of global inflation pressures; (3) high-for-longer global rates; (4) DXY to rally further; and (5) UST yields to stay sticky.
   
• We introduce our RHB Global Risk Sentiment Index, which reinforces our global asset allocation strategy for overweight (OW) Equities, (market weight) MW Fixed Income and underweight (UW) Cash. We continue to prefer developing market (DM) equities over emerging markets (EM), with DM equities to rally further by 5 – 10% in 2Q24. In EM, we like Malaysia, China and India. 
   
• Fixed income: For 2Q24, continue to pay in UST10YR swaps and sell UST10YR bonds on rallies – we forecast UST10YR yields to rise to its 4.5% handle. In the US and Southeast Asia, we prefer credit relative to local currency government bonds. Foreign exchange: we forecast DXY to rally further to 105 – 110 in 2Q24 before trending to 100 in 4Q24. 

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